EUR/USD Eyes Third Straight Monthly Gain: September Seasonality Check

EUR/USD Seeks Rare Three-Month Winning Streak in September 2026

The euro has climbed against the U.S. dollar in both July and August 2026, setting the stage for a potential third consecutive monthly gain in September. According to seasonality data reviewed by analysts, a three-month winning streak for EUR/USD is uncommon: since 2000, the pair has achieved this feat only a handful of times, often coinciding with major shifts in monetary policy expectations or risk sentiment.

September itself has a mixed track record for the single currency. Historical averages show a slight negative bias for EUR/USD during the month, but that tendency has been overshadowed in recent years by macro events—such as European Central Bank (ECB) decisions or U.S. employment surprises—that can easily flip the script. As of early September 2026, the pair is hovering near the upper end of its recent range, with traders watching whether the momentum can carry through the month.

What’s Driving the Euro’s Resilience and the Dollar’s Slip

ECB Policy Path and Eurozone Data Flow

A key pillar of the euro’s strength has been the market’s perception that the ECB remains on a gradual tightening path. Unlike the Federal Reserve, which has signaled a possible pause, the ECB has kept a hawkish tilt, citing sticky inflation in services and robust wage growth. This policy divergence has narrowed yield differentials, making the euro more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

Furthermore, recent eurozone PMI readings have beaten expectations, suggesting the bloc’s economy is weathering the slowdown better than feared. Improved sentiment in Germany and France, the region’s largest economies, has added to the constructive outlook. However, risks remain—energy prices and geopolitical tensions could quickly reverse the narrative.

U.S. Economic Softness and Fed Expectations

Across the Atlantic, the dollar has been under pressure as a string of softer U.S. data—from retail sales to jobless claims—has led traders to price out further Fed hikes. The labor market, while still tight, is showing signs of cooling, and inflation has been edging toward the Fed’s 2% target. This has fueled speculation that the Fed’s next move could be a cut rather than a hike, a scenario that historically weighs on the greenback.

Seasonal patterns also play a role. September has been a notoriously weak month for the dollar in several recent years, partly due to corporate repatriation flows and end-of-quarter rebalancing. But traders caution that such tendencies are not reliable standalone signals; they must be filtered through the lens of current fundamentals and technical positioning.

Key Levels to Watch on EUR/USD in September

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is trading near a critical resistance zone that has capped rallies since mid-2025. A weekly close above this area—around the 1.18 handle—could open the door to further upside, with the next psychological barrier at 1.20. On the downside, support is seen at the 1.15–1.16 region, where the 200-day moving average and a trendline from the April lows converge.

Traders using technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) may note that momentum is currently neutral, not overbought, leaving room for additional gains. However, a failure to hold above 1.17 could signal a false breakout and trigger a pullback toward the lower supports. For context, similar setups have played out in past Septembers, but each cycle carries its own unique macro backdrop.

What This Means for Forex Traders This Month

The seasonality backdrop is just one piece of the puzzle. For traders, the more actionable question is how to position for the likely catalysts ahead: the ECB meeting scheduled for mid-September and the U.S. jobs report due at the end of the month. These events will likely determine whether the euro’s streak extends or reverses.

One key risk is that the ECB could disappoint if it adopts a more cautious tone, perhaps acknowledging downside risks to growth. Conversely, if the Fed signals a more pronounced dovish shift, the dollar could weaken further, giving EUR/USD a tailwind. Traders should also monitor geopolitical developments and energy prices, which have historically triggered sharp moves in the pair during the autumn months.

For those new to forex, understanding how seasonality, central bank policy, and technical levels interact is essential. Our classroom offers free lessons on these topics, and you can test your knowledge with our quick quiz. If you’re ready to trade, you’ll need a reliable broker—compare options at our broker hub.

Ultimately, while historical patterns can provide a framework, they are not destiny. The most prudent approach is to combine seasonal tendencies with real-time data and a disciplined risk management strategy. Engaging with a community of traders in our signal rooms can also help you stay abreast of market sentiment and potential turning points.